Home Owners Thread

[ZenkiKid]

Originally Posted by spooled240

Prices here already seem to be dropping or cooling off just slightly here in SoCal. I've noticed it and this article here talks about it:

https://www.cnbc.com/2018/09/20/home...alifornia.html

Im from San Diego and were seeing the highest rate of price adjustments out of anywhere in california.

Hopefully it keeps going.

[TheRealSy90]

Man... I'm wanting to buy my first house within the next year or two. How long do you guys think I should wait now? s/w AZ not exactly SoCal.

[exitspeed]

I’d wait until 2020-2021 honestly. If a major correction is going to happen I’ll happen by then. There’s also predictions of a mild recession by then. I’m going to look to buy rentals at that point.

[gbaby2089]

Yep that above. Don't rush into it with the market where it is IMO

[ZenkiKid]

Originally Posted by exitspeed

I’d wait until 2020-2021 honestly. If a major correction is going to happen I’ll happen by then. There’s also predictions of a mild recession by then. I’m going to look to buy rentals at that point.

Im hoping that the correction happens sometime next year.

im getting tired of living with my parents. Rent is around 2k a month here in san diego. Absurd.

[exitspeed]

Yeah NOW is not a great time to buy. Great time to sell, but there are a lot of signs that prices are leveling off. Good houses are still selling like crack though.

We would have sold but we just could NOT find a house to buy.

[tricky_ab]

Originally Posted by exitspeed

Yeah NOW is not a great time to buy. Great time to sell, but there are a lot of signs that prices are leveling off. Good houses are still selling like crack though.

We would have sold but we just could NOT find a house to buy.

It's such a weird market... I was thinking the same thing... I've seen whats out there, and I've seen what we can get...but it's bidding wars and slim pickings for my area.

[ZenkiKid]

Townhomes have dropped to an affordable range for me and my fiancee now. Were gonna hold out until next year for the old fixer upper homes to start popping up at better prices.

[exitspeed]

I follow this site. Some good insight on the current market in this post.

https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2...inventory.html

[ZenkiKid]

Originally Posted by exitspeed

I follow this site. Some good insight on the current market in this post.

https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2...inventory.html

So inventory is rising across the board huh?

GOOD. GOOD....

[fliprayzin240sx]

Originally Posted by pacotaco345

Where in norcal if you don’t mind me asking? Reason being is I’m PCSing to travis in January and I’m not sure where I want to live yet...

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

I was stationed there 02-07. Not sure what your status is but if you're single, find some roommates and save money. My single rate BAH back then was $1350, had a 3 bedroom house with 2 other roommates and our rent was $1650. We lucked out on that because similarly sized house would typically be upwards of $2K.

Vacaville has some of the newer houses but Fairfield have some quiet pockets too. We were living north of Air Base Parkway, around the Laurel Park area of Fairfield. South side towards Suisun can be quiet too.

[fliprayzin240sx]

Originally Posted by exitspeed

Yeah NOW is not a great time to buy. Great time to sell, but there are a lot of signs that prices are leveling off. Good houses are still selling like crack though.

We would have sold but we just could NOT find a house to buy.

Buddy of mine just sold their house south of Seattle, in Renton. He paid $420K for it not even and got his asking price for $650K within 48 hours of it being in the market. He ended up buying a horse property 10 mins from his old house for $750K. Housing market up there in absolutely insane.

[exitspeed]

https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2...ng-market.html

The California housing market posted its largest year-over-year sales decline since March 2014 and remained below the 400,000-level sales benchmark for the second consecutive month in September, indicating that the market is slowing as many potential buyers put their homeownership plans on hold, the CALIFORNIA ASSOCIATION OF REALTORS® (C.A.R.) said today.

Closed escrow sales of existing, single-family detached homes in California totaled a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 382,550 units in September, according to information collected by C.A.R. from more than 90 local REALTOR® associations and MLSs statewide. The statewide annualized sales figure represents what would be the total number of homes sold during 2018 if sales maintained the September pace throughout the year. It is adjusted to account for seasonal factors that typically influence home sales.

September's sales figure was down 4.3 percent from the revised 399,600 level in August and down 12.4 percent compared with home sales in September 2017 of 436,920.

"The housing market continued to deteriorate and the decline in sales worsened as interest rates remained on an upward trend. More would-be buyers are self-sidelining as they believe home prices will start to come down soon, making housing more affordable despite rising interest rates," said C.A.R. President Steve White. "Tax reform, which increases the cost of homeownership, also is contributing to the decline, especially in high-cost areas such as the San Francisco Bay Area and Orange County."
...
Statewide active listings rose for the sixth consecutive month following 33 straight months of declines, increasing 20.4 percent from the previous year. September's listings increase was the biggest in nearly four years.

[gbaby2089]

Originally Posted by exitspeed

https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2...ng-market.html

Oh man, that isn't good.

[Dolph_KYAS13]

Originally Posted by exitspeed

Yeah NOW is not a great time to buy. Great time to sell, but there are a lot of signs that prices are leveling off. Good houses are still selling like crack though.

We would have sold but we just could NOT find a house to buy.

For us it made more financial sense to tear down and rebuild. as crazy as it sounds.

[simmode1]

Originally Posted by Dolph_KYAS13

For us it made more financial sense to tear down and rebuild. as crazy as it sounds.

So much of that going on in Dallas too. Big old lots with meh houses sitting on them listed for $400-$500k that someone just buys to raze and rebuild. Hard for me to wrap my brain around that kinda money, TBH.

[ZenkiKid]

Originally Posted by gbaby2089

Oh man, that isn't good.

For who? Sellers?

Im just glad its slowly shifting back to a buyers market.

Townhomes are SLOWLY making it towards an affordable range for me and my fiancee

[gbaby2089]

Originally Posted by ZenkiKid

For who? Sellers?

Im just glad its slowly shifting back to a buyers market.

Townhomes are SLOWLY making it towards an affordable range for me and my fiancee

For most folks when the market crashes.

[Goofs]

Originally Posted by ZenkiKid

Im hoping that the correction happens sometime next year.

im getting tired of living with my parents. Rent is around 2k a month here in san diego. Absurd.

Yeh kind of in the same boat.

Finally got school loans paid, and a decent chunk of change saved after finishing school 2 years ago; just in time for a crappy buyers market.

Just trying to stay patient, but it's tough

[exitspeed]

Originally Posted by gbaby2089

For most folks when the market crashes.

I don’t see a “crash” happening honestly. Not like the housing bubble. It’s definitely correcting though. Which is good.

[Dboyizmlg]

Subscribed!

[gbaby2089]

Originally Posted by exitspeed

I don’t see a “crash” happening honestly. Not like the housing bubble. It’s definitely correcting though. Which is good.

The stock market is completely flat/down since January 1.
We're in a trade war.
Oil prices are dumb low.
Housing has slowed hugely.

Those are not exactly signs of good things to come.

[exitspeed]

Originally Posted by gbaby2089

The stock market is completely flat/down since January 1.
We're in a trade war.
Oil prices are dumb low.
Housing has slowed hugely.

Those are not exactly signs of good things to come.

I’m saying a housing crash. That’s not going to happen.

I’ve said we’re due for a mild recession by 2020. We’re in the longest Bull market in our history so it’s due.

Still it’s not going to be like the Great Recession that started in 07/08.

[RalliartRsX]

So here is a question for all the folks "holding out"

The issue I have with that very model is housing is essentially a investment. Also, when the market crashes, who is to say everyone who has a job right now will have one going into the crash?? Also, who is to say the market is going to crash?? Also, when renting, your money is essentially going into a black hole. Remember, you do not see a dime of ROI if you rent any property (read: this comment is not to be construed as an insult to anyone who currently rents. I rented up until 3 years ago).

The prior statements are just a taste of the questions the wife and I discussed prior to jumping in head first. And ofcourse, considering our location and careers, this wouldn't apply to everyone, but the general idea remains however. The statements are especially relevant in a major metropolitan area who's major employer is the Government. Such markets were minimally affected by 08 crash .

California in general is very similar in makeup.

Just my 0.02c

Originally Posted by gbaby2089

The stock market is completely flat/down since January 1.
We're in a trade war.
Housing has slowed hugely.

Those are not exactly signs of good things to come.

I agree and disagree in the same breath. Markets are still up and reached record high last week. How that has occurred considering all that is happening, I have no clue. However the market is extremely volatile. Tax revenue is down immensely and the deficit is slated to hit 1 Trillion before the year is out, is 18% HIGHER than last year and went up some 200B in a month. So yeah, I have no answers apart from when the chickens come home to roost, something will go bust......how big that bust is is yet to be determined.

Housing hasn't slowed hugely however. There has been some adjustments in CA and cooling off on the market in various pockets. However in general, housing is booming in most metropolitan areas. Texas (in particular Arlington) has seen some of the fastest growth in housing and subsequently prices.

Actually, oil prices have been on a slight rise over the past 5 years. However, you need to account for renewable energy, how cheap Natural gas is, etc which eats into oil prices. I would prefer to a move away from the dependence on oil....

But again, these are not topics for this thread hahahahah
Oil Price chart and trend citation is below.
https://www.macrotrends.net/1369/cru...-history-chart

[ZenkiKid]

Originally Posted by RalliartRsX

So here is a question for all the folks "holding out"

The issue I have with that very model is housing is essentially a investment. Also, when the market crashes, who is to say everyone who has a job right now will have one going into the crash?? Also, who is to say the market is going to crash?? Also, when renting, your money is essentially going into a black hole. Remember, you do not see a dime of ROI if you rent any property (read: this comment is not to be construed as an insult to anyone who currently rents. I rented up until 3 years ago).

The prior statements are just a taste of the questions the wife and I discussed prior to jumping in head first. And ofcourse, considering our location and careers, this wouldn't apply to everyone, but the general idea remains however. The statements are especially relevant in a major metropolitan area who's major employer is the Government. Such markets were minimally affected by 08 crash .

California in general is very similar in makeup.

Just my 0.02c

I have 2 reasons really.

1. California is inflated like crazy right now. Single family homes I can still see staying expensive but my fiancee and I want a nice townhome with a driveway and 2 car and those are still pretty overpriced.
2. With how much the middle class is getting fucked over in california I dont even know if im going to be staying here. Ive applied for jobs outside of the state so for someone like me my future is very much in the air.



https://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2...-mortgage.html

^ Uh oh...



I brought up the calculated risk blog to my realtor and she downplayed the whole thing citing that "oh people dont really buy towards the holiday season and of course people wont pay their mortgates in disaster areas"

Of course someone who makes their money from real estate would downplay it even though its backed by evidence.

[RalliartRsX]

Did you read the entire article?? Apart form the headlines (which literally focuses on a 1 month span), the forecast mostly looks promising for home prices to continue the way they are. I would like to point out a few paragraphs from the article.

According to Black Knight's First Look report for September, the percent of loans delinquent increased 13.2% in September compared to August, but decreased 9.8% year-over-year.

The percent of loans in the foreclosure process decreased 4.5% in September and were down 26.0% over the last year.

Black Knight reported the U.S. mortgage delinquency rate (loans 30 or more days past due, but not in foreclosure) was 3.97% in September, up from 3.52% in August.

The percent of loans in the foreclosure process decreased in September to 0.52% from 0.54% in August.

Unless the stock market goes belly up, it's business as usual in CA

[ZenkiKid]

Originally Posted by RalliartRsX

Did you read the entire article?? Apart form the headlines (which literally focuses on a 1 month span), the forecast mostly looks promising for home prices to continue the way they are. I would like to point out a few paragraphs from the article.



Unless the stock market goes belly up, it's business as usual in CA

id rather take a month to month report than a forecast. Ive always been told its hard to predict the future of an economy.


But yeah, im mainly holding out because I dont even know if im staying here. Plus rent is over $2k for anything halfway decent.

[spooled240]

Originally Posted by RalliartRsX

So here is a question for all the folks "holding out"

The issue I have with that very model is housing is essentially a investment. Also, when the market crashes, who is to say everyone who has a job right now will have one going into the crash?? Also, who is to say the market is going to crash?? Also, when renting, your money is essentially going into a black hole. Remember, you do not see a dime of ROI if you rent any property (read: this comment is not to be construed as an insult to anyone who currently rents. I rented up until 3 years ago).

The prior statements are just a taste of the questions the wife and I discussed prior to jumping in head first. And ofcourse, considering our location and careers, this wouldn't apply to everyone, but the general idea remains however. The statements are especially relevant in a major metropolitan area who's major employer is the Government. Such markets were minimally affected by 08 crash .

California in general is very similar in makeup.

Just my 0.02c

You just have to make a judgement call. I wouldn't buy a house at the max value right now because I do believe the market will drop, not crash.

That doesn't mean I wouldn't buy. I would just keep in mind that values may drop 10-12% over the next 2 years. I would still buy a house that I thought was a killer deal.

Originally Posted by RalliartRsX

Did you read the entire article?? Apart form the headlines (which literally focuses on a 1 month span), the forecast mostly looks promising for home prices to continue the way they are. I would like to point out a few paragraphs from the article.



Unless the stock market goes belly up, it's business as usual in CA

The main takeaway is that things are changing. I do wonder how much the hurricane has skewed the data in this article, but the other articles that were posted earlier also indicate this. More houses on the market, more price reductions, lower volume of houses sold per month, etc. Things are slowing down a bit at least in certain areas.

[ZenkiKid]

Originally Posted by spooled240

You just have to make a judgement call. I wouldn't buy a house at the max value right now because I do believe the market will drop, not crash.

I agree. Ive been told by multiple real estate agents that "Its on you, if you can afford it then go for it. If you cant? Wait it out."

I too think that there wont be no crash but there will be a major correction.

[RalliartRsX]

I would advise you look at market trends, history and stats vs just a single sampling size......

I am not sure who is telling you it's been hard to tell the future. Continuing to cut taxes with a bull market is not a good idea. But that is just a single element that "could" lead to a crash. There are many elements that go into the 3 or 4th largest economy in the world to crash overnight.

The crash of 2008 was a perfect storm that was coming from a mile away. If you look @ the trend 1 month prior to the crash, you would have seriously been blind sided. However, a few folks shorted the market knowing the entire picture vs a single pixel. It was a combination of several things going wrong for it all to come crashing down. IJS.....

However if you aren't going to be in CA, its all a moot point hahahaha!